Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.014878 0.016871 0.019038 0.021569 0.024447 0.027620 0.031385
2025-04-13 0.011200 0.013801 0.016875 0.020784 0.025627 0.031442 0.038971
2025-04-20 0.009769 0.012737 0.016453 0.021457 0.028035 0.036413 0.047934
2025-04-27 0.008718 0.011904 0.016083 0.021982 0.030125 0.041011 0.056747
2025-05-04 0.007962 0.011315 0.015894 0.022630 0.032329 0.045860 0.066289
2025-05-11 0.007100 0.010453 0.015199 0.022439 0.033265 0.048947 0.073568
2025-05-18 0.006449 0.009805 0.014714 0.022456 0.034439 0.052409 0.081653
2025-05-25 0.005812 0.009103 0.014062 0.022126 0.035010 0.054961 0.088522
2025-06-01 0.005421 0.008730 0.013861 0.022450 0.036591 0.059164 0.098353
2025-06-08 0.004975 0.008223 0.013393 0.022286 0.037345 0.062075 0.106298
2025-06-15 0.004744 0.008039 0.013420 0.022920 0.039453 0.067360 0.118715
2025-06-22 0.004279 0.007419 0.012669 0.022162 0.039102 0.068432 0.123853
2025-06-29 0.003932 0.006978 0.012192 0.021854 0.039539 0.070959 0.131956
2025-07-06 0.003538 0.006420 0.011467 0.021039 0.038994 0.071692 0.136839
2025-07-13 0.003413 0.006333 0.011564 0.021722 0.041250 0.077712 0.152293
2025-07-20 0.003276 0.006210 0.011582 0.022254 0.043259 0.083437 0.167721
2025-07-27 0.003166 0.006127 0.011665 0.022910 0.045560 0.089909 0.185269
2025-08-03 0.002958 0.005838 0.011331 0.022717 0.046152 0.093063 0.196303
2025-08-10 0.002794 0.005619 0.011113 0.022734 0.047165 0.097135 0.209647
2025-08-17 0.002604 0.005333 0.010740 0.022400 0.047412 0.099643 0.219849
2025-08-24 0.002499 0.005213 0.010689 0.022728 0.049085 0.105280 0.237489
2025-08-31 0.002353 0.004994 0.010417 0.022562 0.049671 0.108627 0.250283
2025-09-07 0.002294 0.004954 0.010515 0.023204 0.052092 0.116198 0.273564